By Richard M. Cyert, Morris H. DeGroot (auth.)
We started this learn with the target of utilizing Bayesian tools of study to numerous points of monetary concept. We have been drawn to the Bayesian procedure since it appeared the easiest analytic framework on hand for facing determination making less than uncertainty, and the study awarded during this publication has in basic terms served to bolster our trust within the appropriateness and value of this technique. extra specif ically, we think that the idea that of organizational studying is funda psychological to determination making below uncertainty in economics and that the Bayesian framework is the main applicable for constructing that idea. The critical and unifying subject of this booklet is choice making lower than uncertainty in microeconomic idea. Our primary goal is to discover the ways that organisations and families make judgements and to improve types that experience a robust empirical connection. therefore, we've tried to give a contribution to financial thought through formalizing versions of the particular seasoned cess of choice making less than uncertainty. Bayesian method professional vides the precise motor vehicle for this formalization.
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Extra info for Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory
All)' In this case, jj would depend only on the jth component of a. Similarly, if the value of a changes from month to month in accordance with some stochastic process, we can regard the 3. Behavioral and Control Theory of the Firm 35 stochastic part of these changes as part of the random error process (eo, e l , ... , ell) and regard any fixed unknown hyperparameters in this process as part of the vector e. It should be emphasized that the initial conditions of the process will typically be described by a much wider history of the process than merely the value Yo.
At this stage, the total future risk from taking another observation and then making an optimal decision as to whether the final observation should be taken is c + E[PI(f)]. The risk from stopping without any further observations is again Po(~). Hence, if pi~) denotes the optimal total future risk when at most two observations remain to be taken, then (19) In general, if PII(~) denotes the optimal total future risk when at most 2. Bayesian Decision Theory n observations remain to be taken and the distribution of 25 e is i;, then (20) The relation (20) is known as the optimality equation or the dynamic programming equation.
In particular, the firm is sensitive to the amount by which the actual EPS exceeds the target. The primary reason for this caution is that the management wants Bayesian Analysis and Vncertainty in Economic Theory 34 to show steady growth. This objective is desired because steady growth of a given percentage is an indication of good management and because it is believed that the stock market places a high value on steady growth. All other things being equal, management would prefer two years of steady growth rather than one of great growth and one of relatively low growth.